After a record 37 GW of new solar added in 2024, the Energy Information Administration expects 26 GW in 2025 – and even less in 2026.
Solar has grown rapidly in the U.S. and abroad, expanding from 0.1% of U.S. electricity generation in 2010 to over 6% today, the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) said.
Growth continued through 2024, as the U.S. installed 37 GW of new solar capacity. However, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasted that this growth may retract in 2025.
In its Short-Term Energy Outlook report, EIA forecasted that the U.S. will install 26 GW in 2025, falling roughly 30% from the record year in 2024. What’s more, EIA forecasted that the United States will install only 22 GW in 2026, potentially indicating a shrinking industry after fifteen years of double-digit growth.
The forecast from EIA diverges significantly from expectations by Wood Mackenzie and SEIA. The two groups expect the U.S. will install at least 43 GW in 2025 onward, reaching nearly 450 GW of cumulative installations by the end of 2029.
Despite its forecasted slowdown in installations, EIA expects solar to be the leading contributor of new generation added to the grid over the next two years. And despite lower annual capacity additions, these forecasts would represent an increase of U.S. solar generation by 34% in 2025 and by 17% in 2026.
EIA also forecast wind capacity additions will increase by around 8 GW in 2025 and 9 GW in 2026, slight increases from the 7 GW added in 2024. Based on current capacities and expected growth rates, EIA predicts solar capacity will overtake wind capacity in the United State in 2027, as seen in the chart below.
EIA further predicts that rising generation from total renewables will cause natural gas generation to decline by 3% in 2025 and by another 1% in 2026. It also projects coal generation will fall by 1% in 2025, while increasing slightly in 2026 due to expected increases in natural gas costs, maintaining price competitiveness for coal-fired power.
After almost two decades of relatively little change, consumption of electricity grew by 2% in the United States during 2024. EIA expects electricity consumption to increase at about 2% annually over the next two years.
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