Solar energy will satisfy more than 50% of global energy demand within a decade according to a new modeling tool that also predicts solar costs will continue falling by 10% a year.
A new climate modeling tool developed by the co-founder of Sydney-based software company OpenSolar forecasts a seismic shift in global energy patterns, predicting that solar will account for more than half of the world’s energy production by 2035.
Andrew Birch, co-founder and chief executive officer of solar software provider OpenSolar , said the newly launched S-Curve model reveals that a clean energy transition is inevitable with solar set to lead the way.
The S-Curve model projects forward solar’s historical trends, predicting that the technology costs will continue to fall by 10% a year while its deployment will grow at 25% a year. This will see solar energy eclipse nuclear power this year, eclipse oil by 2031, and deliver more than half the world’s energy by 2035 in a classic S-curve technology shift.
“On current growth trends , solar is on track to displace 50% of traditional energy supply within a decade, this should scare you if you’re still financing coal, oil or gas,” Birch said, adding that the forecast is simply the mathematical outcome of solar’s continued growth “which is just kicking in.”
Birch said the S-Curve challenges existing energy projection models that have relied on flawed metrics and assumptions, including that solar’s steady cost reductions and growth rates are suddenly going to stop.
The S-Curve model also deviates from existing models that have relied on the metric of primary energy, something Birch said is only applicable to fossil fuels.
Birch said the S-Curve uses delivered energy as the correct metric, predicting that when powered by solar, the electric economy will require 60% less energy than previously cited.
“Year after year, analysts have been wrong,” he said. “Solar’s learning curve has never ended, in fact, its growth rate has increased. When you combine this growth trend with the lower energy needed with electrification you will get a solar-dominated system within just 10 years.”
Birch said the S-Curve model also forecasts that because solar has the lowest cost of any new-build electricity generation technology, the clean energy transition will deliver significant savings.
“We’ve been told a clean transition will cripple the economy, when in fact, it will save us $9 trillion dollars a year by 2035,” he said. “All we need is a level playing field. Just watch how quickly dirty fuels die in a fair fight when we stop the subsidies and remove clean tech tariffs.”
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