Nuclear energy in Australia has never been more possible, as Aussies will vote on their energy future in 2025. The Coalition proposes adding nuclear to Australia’s energy mix, while the Labor government plans to forge ahead with its renewables goal. If nuclear power plants are to enter Australia’s energy infrastructure, what impact will it have on our environment and the economy? Let’s dive into the possibilities in part 3 of ‘Exploring Nuclear Energy’.
What is the Coalition’s plan for nuclear power?
The Australian Coalition, led by opposition leader Peter Dutton, has proposed integrating nuclear energy into Australia’s power grid. Their strategy involves repurposing existing coal power plant sites to house nuclear reactors, aiming for long-term energy security and emissions reduction.
Key features of the plan:
- Number of plants: Seven nuclear power plants are planned at current coal-fired power station sites.
- Locations: Expected to be in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia, and Western Australia.
- Timeline: The first plants are expected to be operational before 2040.
- Estimated cost: $331 billion for construction and infrastructure development.
- Comparative costs: Coalition claims its nuclear plan will be 44% cheaper than Labor’s renewable transition, which they estimate at $591 billion.
- Primary goal: Provide a stable, baseload power supply with lower emissions compared to fossil fuels.
- Job creation: Expected to generate thousands of jobs in engineering, construction, and nuclear facility operations.
Potential challenges and criticisms:
- High initial costs: Nuclear projects require large capital investment and can experience cost overruns.
- Long construction periods: With the first plants not operational until at least 2040, Australia will continue relying on fossil fuels for decades.
- Carbon emissions during transition: Reports estimate 1.6 billion tonnes of CO₂ emissions could be released between 2025 and 2051 due to prolonged coal and gas use before nuclear is fully integrated.
- Waste disposal: Australia currently lacks a high-level nuclear waste management facility.
- Public opposition: Surveys indicate strong resistance to nuclear power in some regions, particularly over safety and waste concerns.
The Coalition argues that nuclear energy is essential for Australia’s energy security and emissions reduction, but critics question whether the high costs and long timelines make it a viable alternative to renewables. According to their modelling, the plan would cost approximately $331 billion.
However, these estimates have been met with scepticism. Critics argue that the Coalition’s assumptions are overly optimistic, particularly regarding the projected costs of nuclear energy. For instance, the Coalition assumes nuclear energy can be supplied at $30 per megawatt-hour (MWh), while the CSIRO estimates a more realistic cost between $145 and $238 per MWh.
Additionally, the Climate Council has conducted independent analyses that suggest the Coalition’s nuclear plan could lead to at least $308 billion in climate pollution costs between 2025 and 2050 due to the prolonged reliance on fossil fuels during the transition period.
Therefore, while the Coalition has provided its own cost projections, these figures are subject to debate, with various organisations offering alternative estimates that highlight potential underestimations in the Coalition’s modelling.
Economic impact
If the Coalition wins the election and implements its nuclear energy plan, the economic impact on Australia will be substantial. The Coalition has proposed investing $331 billion to establish a domestic nuclear power industry over the next few decades. This includes constructing seven nuclear power plants by 2050 to replace aging coal-fired stations and ensure long-term energy security. Proponents argue that nuclear energy could stabilise electricity prices, create thousands of long-term jobs, and help Australia transition away from fossil fuels. However, critics warn that nuclear projects have significant upfront costs, long construction times, and potential cost overruns, which could place a financial burden on taxpayers.
Despite potential economic benefits, concerns remain about the feasibility and overall costs of nuclear power in Australia. A report by the Climate Council suggests that the Coalition’s nuclear plan could cost up to $490 billion more than expected and result in one billion additional tonnes of CO₂ emissions compared to alternative renewable energy strategies. Unlike solar and wind projects, which can be deployed quickly, nuclear plants take decades to become operational, delaying their economic benefits. Additionally, Australia would need to develop a regulatory framework for nuclear energy, including safety measures and waste disposal infrastructure, which could further increase costs. This has led to strong debates about whether nuclear energy is a viable economic option for the country.
With the information we have, let’s examine the predictions for Australia’s economy over the next 50 years.
Short-term (2025–2040): High costs and slow returns
In the initial decades, the Australian government and private investors will need to commit massive upfront costs—likely exceeding $331 billion—for the construction of nuclear plants, regulatory frameworks, and waste management systems. Given that nuclear power plants take at least 15–20 years to become operational, Australia would likely experience little economic return on this investment until the 2040s. During this period, the economy may face challenges due to high energy costs, potential tax increases to fund projects, and continued reliance on fossil fuels. Additionally, nuclear projects have a history of cost overruns, which could inflate total expenses to over $700 billion, as some experts predict.
Mid-term (2040–2075): Economic stabilisation and industrial growth
By the mid-century mark, if Australia successfully establishes a nuclear energy industry, the economy could see long-term benefits, including energy price stabilisation, job creation, and industrial expansion. A reliable nuclear power supply would help reduce energy price volatility, which has been a major issue with coal and gas dependency. Additionally, nuclear energy could support industries like advanced manufacturing, hydrogen production, and AI-driven technologies that require stable, high-energy output. However, Australia’s ability to compete globally in the nuclear sector will depend on whether it develops domestic uranium enrichment and reactor technology or relies on imports, which could affect economic sovereignty.
Long-term (2075 and Beyond): Sustainability vs. risk
By 2075, nuclear power could become a dominant part of Australia’s energy mix, replacing coal entirely and reducing emissions significantly. However, economic risks will remain, particularly regarding waste storage, plant decommissioning costs, and competition from evolving renewable technologies. If global advancements in fusion energy, battery storage, or next-generation renewables surpass nuclear efficiency, Australia may find itself locked into an expensive energy model that is outdated by global standards. On the other hand, if nuclear energy becomes more cost-effective and modular reactor technology advances, Australia could emerge as a regional leader in nuclear exports, driving further economic growth.
Environmental impact
The adoption of nuclear energy presents both potential environmental benefits and risks for Australia. On the positive side, nuclear power generates minimal greenhouse gas emissions during operation, which could significantly reduce Australia’s carbon footprint. If nuclear replaces coal-fired power plants, the country could see a long-term reduction in emissions while maintaining a stable energy supply. However, nuclear projects take time to develop, meaning Australia may continue relying on fossil fuels for the next two decades before nuclear power becomes a viable alternative. Experts estimate that the Coalition’s nuclear plan could result in over 1.6 billion tonnes of CO₂ emissions between 2025 and 2051 due to the extended transition period.
Nuclear energy introduces other environmental challenges in addition to carbon emissions. Uranium mining, necessary for fuel supply, has long been controversial due to its impact on water sources and ecosystems. Concerns about nuclear waste storage also exist, as Australia currently lacks a long-term disposal solution for high-level radioactive waste.
Let’s explore Australia’s potential environmental outlook over the next 50 years with nuclear energy in the mix.
Short-term (2025–2040): Increased emissions and environmental strain
In the early stages, Australia’s environmental impact may worsen rather than improve. Nuclear plants take at least 15–20 years to become operational, meaning Australia will likely continue relying on coal and gas for electricity until at least 2040. Experts estimate that the Coalition’s nuclear plan could result in an additional 1.6 billion tonnes of CO₂ emissions between 2025 and 2051 due to prolonged fossil fuel use. Furthermore, the construction of nuclear facilities will require significant land clearing, water use, and raw materials, adding to environmental degradation. Uranium mining, necessary for nuclear fuel, poses risks to groundwater and ecosystems, particularly in regions like South Australia and Western Australia, where mining operations are likely to expand.
Mid-term (2040–2075): Lower carbon emissions but ongoing waste issues
By the mid-century mark, Australia’s overall carbon emissions could decline significantly as nuclear plants begin replacing coal. Unlike coal and gas, nuclear power does not produce direct CO₂ emissions during operation, which could help Australia meet its net-zero targets. However, nuclear plants require vast amounts of water for cooling, potentially stressing water resources in drought-prone areas. Additionally, nuclear waste storage will remain a major environmental concern. Australia currently has no long-term disposal solution for high-level radioactive waste, meaning interim storage sites would be necessary. If these sites are not managed properly, they could pose contamination risks to surrounding land and water.
Long-term (2075 and Beyond): A cleaner grid but Persistent challenges
By 2075, if Australia has successfully transitioned to a nuclear-powered grid, the country could see a more stable and low-emission energy system, significantly reducing reliance on fossil fuels. This shift would benefit biodiversity by decreasing air pollution, acid rain, and habitat destruction caused by coal mining. However, the long-term environmental risks of nuclear waste disposal and plant decommissioning will persist. If Australia fails to develop a permanent nuclear waste facility, the accumulation of radioactive waste could become a growing issue for future generations. Furthermore, advancements in renewables, battery storage, and fusion energy could make traditional nuclear plants less desirable, potentially leaving Australia with expensive and outdated infrastructure.
Final prediction: A mixed outcome
Australia’s economic trajectory with nuclear energy will likely be a mix of high initial costs, long-term stabilisation, and ongoing risks. If managed well, nuclear power could provide energy security, industrial growth, and lower emissions, strengthening Australia’s economy by 2075. However, mismanagement, delays, or unforeseen technological disruptions could leave the country burdened with debt, stranded assets, and expensive energy infrastructure. Whether nuclear energy is the right choice will depend on how efficiently it is implemented and how adaptable Australia remains to future energy innovations.
Australia’s environmental future with nuclear energy will likely be a trade-off between lower greenhouse gas emissions and the challenges of waste management, uranium mining, and water usage. While nuclear could provide a stable and low-carbon energy source, it does not come without risks. If managed poorly, nuclear energy could lead to long-term contamination concerns, excessive water use, and stranded infrastructure. However, if Australia invests in next-generation nuclear technologies and waste disposal solutions, it could achieve a cleaner energy future while mitigating long-term environmental harm.
Stay tuned for part 4 of our series where we will explore the potential impact on existing renewables. Catch up on part 1 and part 2.
