The U.S. solar industry installed nearly 18 GW of new capacity in the first half of 2025. Even as the Trump Administration rolled out a series of anti-clean energy policies, solar and storage still accounted for 82% of all new power added to the grid in its first six months.
HR1 and recent Trump Administration actions targeting solar have significantly reduced deployment forecasts. The low-case forecast in the “U.S. Solar Market Insight Q3 2025” report from the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie warns that these policies put the United States at risk of losing 44 GW of solar deployment by 2030, an 18% decline. When compared to pre-HR1 forecasts, the United States is at risk of losing a total of 55 GW of solar deployment by 2030, a 21% decline.
“Solar and storage are the backbone of America’s energy future, delivering the majority of new power to the grid at the lowest cost to families and businesses,” said Abigail Ross Hopper, SEIA president and CEO. “Instead of unleashing this American economic engine, the Trump Administration is deliberately stifling investment, which is raising energy costs for families and businesses, and jeopardizing the reliability of our electric grid. But no matter what policies this administration releases, the solar and storage industry will continue to grow, because the market is demanding what we’re delivering: reliable, affordable, American-made energy.”
The report finds that 77% of all solar capacity installed this year has been built in states won by President Donald Trump, including eight of the top 10 states for new solar installations: Texas, Indiana, Arizona, Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Kentucky and Arkansas.
The United States added 13 GW of new solar module manufacturing capacity in the first half of 2025 with new or expanded factories in Texas, Indiana and Minnesota. Today the United States has 55 GW of total solar module manufacturing capacity. However, there was no new upstream manufacturing investment in Q2 as federal policies threaten to stall U.S. solar manufacturing momentum and risk billions of dollars of private capital.
The report shows that solar deployment is expected to be 4% lower than the pre-HR1 base case by 2030. Near-term deployment is bolstered by projects already underway, a rush to meet tax credit deadlines and rising demand for power as new gas generation becomes more expensive and less available.
The low case forecast details how recent executive actions could damage the industry. According to the report, the Dept. of the Interior’s actions are expected to impact roughly 44 GW of planned solar capacity, with Arizona, California and Nevada most affected.
“There is considerable downside risk for the solar industry if the federal permitting environment creates more constraints for solar projects,” said Michelle Davis, head of solar research at Wood Mackenzie. “The solar industry is already navigating dramatic policy changes as a result of HR1. Further uncertainty from federal policy actions is making the business environment for the solar industry incredibly challenging.”
SEIA wrote to DOI Sec. Doug Burgum last month imploring that if not reversed, these executive actions will result in lost jobs and increased electricity prices. Last week, SEIA released a grid reliability policy agenda that outlines actions that local, state and federal leaders can take to strengthen the reliability of America’s electric grid with solar and storage technologies.
News item from SEIA
