The vibe at the RE+ tradeshow this week in Las Vegas was generally positive. A defiant nature took hold on the first full day of the conference, with everyone reassuring each other that the solar industry will continue to thrive despite federal policy shifts.
But underneath that sticky-sweet façade is the truth: Some markets will fare better than others, and we’re still waiting on final guidance for FEOC rules and other construction timelines before we’ll know the real damage done. There were significantly fewer residential installers walking the show this year than previously, (hopefully) because they are extra busy wrapping up projects before the residential ITC expires at year-end. The residential market will be hit hard next year, with Wood Mackenzie research director Sylvia Leyva Martinez predicting a 13% detraction in 2026.
I learned that stat and more at SEIA and Wood Mackenzie’s research briefing on Wednesday. Research and policy analysts are trying their best to predict what the U.S. solar industry will look like over the next few years, but that’s difficult when things seem to change daily. Here are a few highlights the groups feel confident on:
SEIA refocuses policy efforts to the states
SEIA president and CEO Abby Hopper started the briefing by acknowledging that a successful solar industry can’t tie its future to federal incentives that “whip back and forth.” While still spending time educating federal policymakers, SEIA is moving to work in three areas: 1) putting energy storage policy first, 2) increasing state advocacy, especially in states with solar-supportive governors, and 3) continuing efforts at boosting domestic manufacturing.
With energy storage systems somewhat spared from changes in HR1, SEIA will continue advocating for the technology that is often complemented with solar. Many are also confident that state incentives may re-emerge to boost localized solar development. And now is “not the time to walk away from onshoring,” Hopper said, especially as solar and storage projects of the future will need domestic products to meet Dept. of the Treasury rules the industry doesn’t yet know.
FEOC-compliant storage projects are almost impossible
While still awaiting final rules, the basic understanding of FEOC rules is that solar/storage projects that use too many Chinese components will be denied federal tax credits. With battery cells comprising 50% of a BESS’s system cost, domestic battery cells are needed to meet the FEOC threshold. And of course, there are very few battery cells made in America, with most coming from Chinese firms.
Kasim Khan, Wood Mackenzie senior research analyst, said it is very likely that energy storage projects in 2026 and beyond will not get the investment tax credit (ITC) that was extended to the market. But if more EV battery manufacturers switch over to producing cells for the stand-alone storage market, things could change quickly.
It’s unlikely a self-sufficient solar panel supply chain is set up in America
There is more than enough domestic solar panel capacity to supply the market, but access to upstream components is still lacking. With over 55 GW of solar panel assembly currently sited in the United States, and less than 50 GW expected to be installed each year through 2030, a supply of American-assembled solar panels with foreign components could theoretically meet the country’s demand. As projects have found more unique ways to calculate domestic content percentages using balance-of-system components, less weight is being placed on silicon wafers and cells being made in America. But it leads to an interesting question, posed by WoodMac’s Martinez: Facing an oversupply situation, can the United States become a solar panel exporting country?
We’re already losing projects in 2025
Most utility-scale solar projects come online in Q4, but WoodMac is already seeing a 24% decrease in installs so far this year. Once the year ends, the group expects to see a 2% decrease in installed capacity. While solar projects will still get built, especially as the country requires more quick-sited electricity to meet data center demand, the next few years will feel a dip. Around 246 GW of new solar is expected through 2030 — a 21% decline over what was predicted before HR1 hit the industry.
And there are still plenty of unanswered questions. Although a Dept. of Interior mandate affects solar projects sited on public lands, private-land solar is still being affected by the slowdown in approval. If a transmission hookup is crossing public lands, signed-off projects are being held up. How could that affect large projects across the country?
I’m fully on-board with the rah-rah attitude in the industry — optimism and a positive outlook will take us far. Solar power is necessary to meet U.S. energy goals, and the demand is there in all markets. Solar Power World will continue to be here to sort through the latest policy developments that will make it all happen.
